INSIDE CHINA'S
TWO-CHILD POLICY
BACKGROUND
1980 - 2006
The one-child policy was initiated in 1979 and implemented nationwide in 1980 by the Chinese government. The purpose was to limit the great majority of the Chinese family to one child each and to reduce the large population growth in the country.
2007 - 2015
Since 2007, the central government of China initiated the Single Second Child Policy, and started to relax the One-child policy. All provinces except Henan, which followed in 2011, had started to permit couples to have two children under certain conditions. At least one of the child’s parents needs to be a single child.
2016 - NOW
On December.27th, 2015, the National People's Congress Standing Committee passed the Two-child policy which allows couples to have two children with no restrictions to help address the aging issue in China.The policy went into effect on January.1st, 2016.
MOTIVATION
“Because my current working environment is very stable, to conceive a second child, would disrupt the rhythm of my work now.”
-- A typical professional woman
“The economic pressures are huge. My present income and my future income, the cost of a child’s birth, the cost of education in the future.”
-- A typical Chinese mom
Over years, women’s voices of childbearing have been heard. Many women describe their difficulties to remain in the labor market after giving birth as well as meet the traditional role model of the family. Socioeconomically, rapid economic growth, ever-increasing competitive labor market, rising living expenses, and existing gender inequality have led to lower fertility in recent decades. Policywise, China’s one-child policy further limits women’s freedom to give birth. The negatives led by a declining fertility, including rapid aging rate, shrinking population, skewed sex ratio, will threaten sustainable economic growth. Our project aims to understand whether a relaxation of childbearing policy (from One Child Policy to Single Second Child Policy to Universal Two-child Policy) has any fundamental change to the demography. Additionally, if the two-child policy fails to ameliorate the rapid aging rate, what else needs to be done in order to permanently change the fertility rate in order to slow down the aging rate?
DATA
Data Collection
Source :
China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 1990 - 2016
Data Collected :
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Total Population by Gender
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Total Population
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Mortality Rate
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Net Migration
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Fertility Rate (for Women from age 15 to 49)
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Newborn Sex Ratio
Historical Data Visualization
Here we display China's historical population by gender since 1990. Overall, China has had a larger total male population than the total female population, despite the fluctuating differences between the two populations.
Here we display China's historical total population since 1990. The overall trend of population is growing, except for some dips. But what is notable is that the population growth did not increase visibly as China gradually relaxed its two-child policy since 2007.
Population Prediction Model
We will apply the Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model, developed by Lutz in 1994, to predict the future total population and aging population. We specifically chose this model because it took into account all possible factors that could impact population change, such as mortality, migration, and fertility rate.
Results
Newborn Population & Sex Ratio (1990-2050)
As is demonstrated in the graph, the total newborn population has decreased and remained at a very low level during the one-child policy. Even after the two-chid policy is relaxed completely in 2016, the newborn population will only increase briefly before it starts to decrease again.
In terms of sex ratio among newborn population, we will see a smaller gap between genders in the future, mainly due to the alleviation of gender stereotype in our generation. But we believe a decrease of gender ratio to 100 is still a bold assumption.
Total Population by Gender (1990-2050)
Our prediction suggests that although the total population will increase in the next decade, it will decrease in the long run.
Meanwhile, in accordance with our previous assumption of a small gender gap, we also see a convergence in the total male and female population in the future.
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Total Population (1990-2050)
Here we compare the predicted future population growth under two-child policy with the hypothetical scenario had there been no relaxation on the one-child policy at all. Here we see that the two-child policy mainly served to delay the population decline in the future, but more actions need to be taken to encourage childbirth.
Aging Rate (1990-2050)
In this graph, we contrast the predicted aging rate under two-child policy with the hypothetical aging rate in the scenario where one-child policy had never been relaxed in 2007. Here the graph demonstrates that the two-child policy only serves to delay the aging process in China, as the aging rate in the hypothetical one-child policy scenario reached its peak only a few years earlier than that in the two-child policy case.
ANALYSIS
Socioeconomic Reasons
Female in the Labor Force
80%
Wage Ratio (Male=1)
128
43.71%
Days of Maternity Leave
of Labor Force
is Female
Even though China's female labor force participation rate has decreased in the past 20 years, it has always been above the world average rate (52% - 56%). In comparison, the world's average in 2019 based on 181 countries was 51.81%. The fear of losing their job or receiving a lower salary after maternity leave has made a portion of women in China chose to work rather than give birth to a child. The unsecured working environment for pregnant women in the workforce definitely has played a role in the decreasing newborn population.
Education (2005-2018)
From 2005 to 2018, the student-teacher ratio for primary school has always been higher than that in middle schools. The ratio barely decreased in 2007 or 2016 when Single Second Child and the two-child policy were initiated nationwide.
The insufficient amount of educational resources is impeding families from the desire of having a child. The high importance Chinese families have put on Education, such as providing high-quality education since kindergarten, tutoring classes, and extracurricular activities, brings much burden on the family.
Deep-rooted Culture
Zuo Yue Zi is commonly practiced in urban and rural families to help the mother regain her strength and protect her future health. The process of staying at home for a month keeps women from going back into the workforce. The process of Zuo Yue Zi impedes a portion of women from giving birth.
Policy Responses
A low fertility rate is not a Chinese problem. From 1960 to 2018, many countries in East Asia (Singapore, South Korea, Japan) have witnessed an ultra-low fertility and have taken corresponding actions to reverse the trend.
Singapore
Financial incentives
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Offer cash payments and a co-saving plan to parents (2000)
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Tax rebates for working mothers
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Medical insurance to children
Support for families
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Increase paid maternity leave from 8-12 weeks in 2004 to 12-16 weeks in 2006
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One-week paternity leave
Policies to encourage marriage
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Housing policies that offer various inducements to Singaporeans who plan to marry
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Provide grants and oversight to Singapore’s approved 13 dating services
South Korea
First Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aged Society (2006)
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Target low-income population
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Provide child-bearing and child-rearing supports
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Foster family-friendly and gender-equality culture
Second Basic Plan (2010)
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Include middle class
Third Basic Plan (2016)
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Create a social environment that is conducive to child-rearing
Japan
Angel Plan (1994)
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Offer counseling to couples and encourage fathers to take an equal role in childbearing
New Angel Plan (2009)
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Propose more convenient daycare centers, but lack of funds impede the progress
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The government provides fund up to 26,000 yen per child per month (about US$280) to supporting childbearing
Plus One Policy
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Increase husbands’ efforts in bringing up fertility - calling on fathers to take at least five days’ leave when a child is born
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Two laws were enacted to carry out the plan of “plus one”
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Introduce measures to support mothers’ re-entry to the labor market
Consequences & Assessment
Result: The pro-fertility policies fails to lead to any significant change in the total fertility rate and underlying socio-demographic factors in these East Asian countries.
Assessment
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Policies in East Asian countries have become more comprehensive over time, but are not liberal enough
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none has introduced paid paternity leave policy and fails to encourage men’s more involvement in child-bearing and child-rearing
China's Current Policy
Our Proposed Policies
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Phase out the 30-year-old One-Child Policy
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Encourage more immigration
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Historical data shows that China's net migration has been negative for 2 decades
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Provide subsidies to working mothers and paid maternity leave
A. Social Insurance Program targeting working-age couples
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consist of marriage, child-bearing and child-rearing benefits
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To be eligible for the benefits, their parents should pay the social security taxes on their earnings
Key: more than one generation being in the utility function (OLG model)
Why does the program work in China?
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Chinese single-child norm
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Chinese family inheritance culture: most parents are willing to pay upfront to reduce their children’s financial burdens of child-bearing and child-rearing.
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For parents, this is an endowment-reallocation program
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For children, social insurance serves as an additional financial incentive for marriage and child-bearing.
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Paid maternity and paternity leave (guarantee both maternal and paternal roles in the family)
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The program is self-financed: government does not need to raise taxes to finance the program
B. Trainings on paternal role on child rearing
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Tear down the stigma associated with stay-at-home dad
Why does the program work in China?
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The idea that the man of the house should be the breadwinner, while child care and domestic duties are the woman’s duties, is deep-rooted in Chinese and Japanese culture
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Studies show that both parents' involvement in the family increases the fertility
DISCUSSION
Discussion on Model Assumptions
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In the model to predict fertility, we adopt the same algorithm under one-child and two-child policy, which fails to lead to any fundamental change in the fertility rate and no decline in the aging rate. In the future, we want to expand our studies to include the analysis of the predicted variables of fertility.
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In the migration model, we simply assume that net migration is constant across ages and gender.
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Our model is essentially deterministic. In the future, we want to consider the randomness of the population and adopt a stochastic model for the analysis.
Conclusion
Social and economic factors depress fertility rates even under the relaxed childbearing policy. Ultra-low fertility leads to a shrinking total population and a more aging population, which can exacerbate the existing serious problems in the health care and social security system. In the next 20 years, it seems that the universal two-child policy has only a marginal effect on the acceleration of the aging population unless further policy actions designed to permanently increase the fertility rate are taken.
Further Analysis
In the future, we aim to understand the demographic shifts introduced by the two-child policy as well as its impacts on the economy. Our current analysis focuses more on the causes of declining fertility and the corresponding policy responses rather than its potential impacts on the health care system, education, social insurance system, etc.